Who Is PlanB?/PlanB Wiki
PlanB is a cryptocurrency investor, financial analyst, and cryptocurrency advocate. He maintains anonymity online, with his real identity and background being unknown.
PlanB appears to be male, based on the (audio) interviews he has done, and has stated he is from the Netherlands (see below).
PlanB is best known for Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model and Stock-to-Flow Cross Asset (S2FX) model, both intended to quantify the value of Bitcoin (especially in the former), as well as other assets (especially in the latter).
Bio And Background
Little is known about PlanB. On his personal website, he claims to be a former investor from the Netherlands:
PlanB@100trillionUSD is a Dutch former institutional investor with 25 years of experiences in financial markets. He has a legal and quantitative finance background and has always been fascinated by modeling risk & return. In March 2019 he created the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model where he uses scarcity to quantify Bitcoin value. A year later he introduced the Stock-to-Flow Cross Asset (S2FX) model, which includes gold, silver, diamond and real estates. He is now primarily focusing on Bitcoin valuation models, on-chain analysis and investment strategies.
He explains the reasoning behind his name and Twitter handle @100trillionUSD as follows:
PlanB refers to an alternative plan for quantitative easing (printing money by central banks), negative interest rates and currency debasement in general. 100trillionUSD is a reference to the Zimbabwe 100trillion dollar note during the 2008 hyperinflation.
In May 2020, Cointelegraph wrote that PlanB was planning to “go dark” if his Bitcoin predictions ever came true:
I will go dark if the model is successful because if the model is successful, it will not be a pretty picture.
It will be nasty, it will (be) maybe war — people have Bitcoins, some people don’t have Bitcoin, it’ll be some countries have Bitcoins, some won’t have Bitcoins, it will be the U.S. dollar losing its reserve status, it will be geopolitical, it will be military.
PlanB stated that he would maintain his online presence if his model proves to be incorrect.
PlanB’s Stock-To-Flow And Stock-To-Flow Cross Asset Models
In March 2019, PlanB introduced Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) – a model that predicts the value of Bitcoin. The model’s predictions are based on the concept of scarcity, with scarcer assets being more valuable. In this sense, the model treats Bitcoin similarly to scarce resources like gold or silver.
The model is based on the hypothesis that scarcity drives value. Scarcity (or SF) is defined as the ratio of an asset’s current stock (reserves) and its flow (annual production):
SF = stock / flow
S2F has been rather accurate as of late June 2021. In April 2021, Forbes called S2F one of the most accurate price prediction models in crypto in existence. At the same time, PlanB acknowledges that Bitcoin’s scarcity and issuance schedule aren’t the only reasons for its value increase.
Forbes writes that PlanB tested the model with ten altcoins but could not achieve accurate predictions.
In June 2021, Roger Ver’s Bitcoin.com reported that PlanB had published the worst- and best-case scenarios for Bitcoin in 2021 – $135,000 and $450,000 respectively.
Bitcoin is below $34K, triggered by Elon Musk's energy FUD and China's mining crack down.
There is also a more fundamental reason that we see weakness in June, and possibly July. My worst case scenario for 2021 (price/on-chain based): Aug>47K, Sep>43K, Oct>63K, Nov>98K, Dec>135K pic.twitter.com/hDONOVgxH1
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) June 20, 2021
Wait until you seen my base case and best case scenarios! OK, a hint: best case Dec $450K 😎
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) June 20, 2021
LookIntoBitcoin.com maintains a chart of S2F predictions with an overlay of historical Bitcoin prices.
In April 2020, PlanB introduced the Stock-to-Flow Cross Asset (S2FX) model. Based on S2F, S2FX includes gold, silver, diamond, and real estate.
PlanB Net Worth
The exact net worth of PlanB is unknown. In March 2020, he was featured on Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano’s podcast where he claimed to be part of an investment team that managed approximately $100 billion in assets.
New episode is live with @100trillionUSD!
He reveals that he is part of an investment team that manages approximately $100 billion, while also explaining how the stock-to-flow price model that he invented is getting more accurate over time.
Enjoy!https://t.co/STjTJ0nTat
— Pomp 🌪 (@APompliano) March 10, 2020
Online Presence And Publicity
PlanB is present on Twitter under the handle @100trillionUSD.
Even for me it is always a bit uneasy when bitcoin price is at the lower bound of the stock-to-flow model. Will it hold (like Mar 2019 when I published S2F, or Mar 2020 Covid, or Sep 2020 with BTC stuck at $10K) and is this another buying opportunity? Or will S2F be invalidated? pic.twitter.com/iIjTC2Ncy3
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) June 23, 2021
Just to confirm: both my S2F(X) model and on-chain signal point towards a second run of this bull market🚀 pic.twitter.com/d8NB4jNoTL
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) June 15, 2021
PlanB has been featured on the podcasts of a number of prominent entrepreneurs and cryptocurrency investors, including Preston Pysh, Scott Melker, Anthony Pompliano, and Raoul Pal’s RealVision. A full list of his podcast appearances is available on his website.
Cointelegraph named PlanB as the 10th most notable figure in the blockchain space in 2021 alongside the likes of Changpeng Zhao, Sergey Nazarov, Andre Cronje, Barry Silbert, Jesse Powell, and Gavin Wood.
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